Mahan in new Jihadist journal

April 7, 2009 by hipbone

It’s intriguing, unexpected and perhaps even significant that the first issue of the English-language Jihadist magazine “Jihad Recollections” from Al-Fursan Media should feature an illustration of Mahan’s classic The Influence of Sea Power to accompany its cover story on “The Predications of the Conquering of Rome”:

mahan-in-jihadist-mag1

It would be interesting to see a bibliography of western historical and military texts referenced in jihadist literature…

*

The journal can be dowloaded here.

For an eschatological note on the same “Jihad Recollections” article, see the comment on The conquest of Romiyya / Rome in my Forensic Theology blog.

The needed tabletop

May 23, 2008 by hipbone

Shloky just blogged his review of Increo’s Backboard:

Lets you upload a document, picture, website for review (only lets users leave blog-like comments).

Could be potentially 10x more useful if it had a whiteboard overlay layer on it. Let a team mark up and manipulate the content. Could be a great tool for creative types, but is currently castrated.

That got me thinking about the idea I’ve long had for a HipBone amenable tabletop — something to match the old-style tabletops on which battle plans were worked out (chess left, pentagon right):

My comment on Shloky’s post:

Multiple transparent layers that can be populated with troops and logistics, diagrammed with text in balloons, turned into STELLA or VenSim diagrams (ie Forrester-style stocks and flows) and superimposed on maps with GPS capabilities seems to me to be the MINIMUM needed for contemporary equivalent of walking around a map on a table, moving little tin soldiers around.

On the necessity for polyphonic thinking

May 23, 2008 by hipbone

I recently ran across a paper on Wargaming Fourth-Generation Warfare, and a passing remark triggered some of my usual ideas about the need for a mode of thinking which can encompass many points of view or stakeholder “voices” simultaneously.

Wargaming expert Peter Perla and colleagues at the Center for Naval Analyses write of the “heavy burden” that is placed on a player “who must manage simultaneous mental constructs of multiple points of view — for example diplomatic, informational, military, and economic”. It is hard to exaggerate the difficulty of holding different and at times conflicting notions in mind at one time. And the burden is greater still when the points of view simultaneously espoused include religion, and not merely religion that fits with the worldviews of prevailing diplomatic, military and economic thought, but religion which is itself at odds with them.

Diagrammatic thinking — in which various viewpoints are held in tension rather than being lined up in marching order from premise to conclusion — offers the obvious solution to this problem, a simultaneous presentation of multiple voices or conceptual polyphony wholly comparable to the contrapuntal music of Bach.

It may seem at first glance strange to mention Bach in the context of strategic thinking or wargaming, but I do so because as I see it a study of Bach’s contrapuntal technique may have much to reveal about the necessary mechanisms of conceptual polyphony, and hence of the mapping of complex, multi-participant systems.

Something similar would seem to be the thrust, for instance, of the musically sophisticated Palestinian advocate Edward Said’s comment regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict:

When you think about it, when you think about Jew and Palestinian not separately, but as part of a symphony, there is something magnificently imposing about it. A very rich, also very tragic, also in many ways desperate history of extremes — opposites in the Hegelian sense — that is yet to receive its due. So what you are faced with is a kind of sublime grandeur of a series of tragedies, of losses, of sacrifices, of pain that would take the brain of a Bach to figure out. It would require the imagination of someone like Edmund Burke to fathom.

– Edward W. Said, Power, Politics, and Culture, p. 447.

If we were not so science-and-techward leaning, if we were as liberal-arts leaning in our analysis as we are technical, if we recalled that Chaucer was a spy, Kit Marlowe, Wordsworth, Basil Bunting, that Graham Greene spied as did John le Carre, that much of the early OSS was recruited from the Yale literature department buy the likes of Archibald MacLeish… perhaps it wouldn’t seem so strange to look to J.S. Bach for intelligence about Intelligence.

*

I had barely finished writing this post when I ran across what seems like a pleasant enough synchronism — an article in which Dave Marash, who recently left his position as anchor on Al Jazeera English, was interviewed by Brent Cunningham for the Columbia Journalism Review, explaining why he had quit — and in the course of the interview, he explains the original concept behind the channel:

… the original concept was literally cosmopolitan — the whole world covered from many points of view representing the whole world. That was the logic of having four news centers in Doha, London, Washington, and Kuala Lumpur. All four were supposed to be autonomous, to initiate their own assignment decisions and lineup priorities. And the sum total of the four points of view was to put a truly cosmopolitan, multipolar gloss on the world.

That’s straightforward enough — four independent points of origin, four points of view presented in counterpoint. But it’s the “almost Bach” comment he followed up with that amused me, the reference to that favorite form of Bach’s, the fugue:

… the thing that I loved best about the original concept was the sort of fugue of points of view and opinions, because I think that’s what desperately needed in the world.

I can only agree. My own task is to figure out how best to score such fugues.

Charles Cameron, April 1998, Sedona, AZ.

Charles Cameron, the designer of the HipBone games and analytic tools, is working on a book manuscript exploring religious and apocalyptic violence.

Valdistics

May 11, 2008 by hipbone

I was playing with Valdis Krebs’ blogpost of a couple of days ago, to which Zenpundit kindly pointed us, and Valdis’ earlier post to which that one refers, and wondering how (graphically only; I am impaired as far as the math goes) he’d represent the “emergent clusters” and their (pun intended) spokespersons in his story about the hotel, the wifi and the customers…

Here’s my sketch, based on one of Valdis diagrams — the yellow and purple areas are clusters, the lines in those colors connecting them to the hotel authorities represent their group connections, and the yellow “number” 2 represents the idea that the person at the end of “spoke 2″ is the spokesperson for the yellow group.

Next I’d want to have a hierarchy (behind the desk) in the blue area, with decision-makers separated from desk-people…

And then ideally, we’d move to map the ideas in the various heads, and the tensions (power plays) between them — and thus be able to see how (a) connectivity lights up the clusters and (b) what happens to them when one of them stumbles on the Valdistic Notion that if they approach the desk in a group with a spokesman, their power to influence matters may be greater — since the Lie will no longer work against them.

Intel, complex issues, Islam, and videogames

April 25, 2008 by hipbone

Wired had an article titled U.S. Spies Use Custom Videogames to Learn How to Think yesterday, which opened with this para:

The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency has just taken delivery of three PC-based games, developed by simulation studio Visual Purple under a $2.6 million contract between the DIA and defense contractor Concurrent Technologies. The goal is to quickly train the next generation of spies to analyze complex issues like Islamic fundamentalism.

You can bet I’m interested — this hits both my “games” interest and my “forensic theology” side.

But I wonder how in depth they get, I wonder whether they’re tracking the various arguments against Jihadism from within Islam — like this quote from Sheikh Salman al-Oadah:

How could you wish for that? – after knowing that Allah’s Messenger said: “Whoever as much as kills a sparrow in vain will find it crying before Allah on the Day of Judgment: ‘My Lord! That person killed me in vain. He did not kill me for needful sustenance.’” This religion of ours comes to defense of the life of a sparrow. It can never accept the murder of innocent people, regardless of what supposed justification is given for it. Didn’t you read where the Prophet (peace be upon him) said: “One of the prophets once sat under a tree and was bitten by an ant. Because of this, he burnt the ant’s nest. Thereupon, Allah inspired to him: ‘Why not only the one ant?’” [Sahîh Muslim] Allah revealed to that prophet: “What? Just because one ant had bitten you, you have set fire to an entire nation that extols Allah’s glory!” [Sahîh Muslim (2241)]

Islamic fundamentalism — even the name is problematic — isn’t a “complex issue” just because, as a belief system, it is part and parcel of the complexity of human thought, which is “complex” enough that we don’t yet have decent ways to model such matters (I’m working on that) — it’s also complex because it’s deeply personal to believers, and only those willing to show real respect can even begin to address the issues.

The full HipBone monte

April 2, 2008 by hipbone

I thought I’d post here the materials I just posted in response to the Imaginal Institute’s request for a brief account of what I am trying to accomplish. It’s in three parts, the first dealing with mapping / modeling using the HipBone toolset, the second with monitoring religious violence, and the third with applying the toolset to mapping conflict in the middle east.

Here goes:

I seem to have two fairly distinct directions that I’m working in, and they offer, respectively, a form and some content.

The form: the HipBone family of games and analytic tools:

There is a natural mental process we all use every day, by which one thing reminds us of another. As with so many such naturally occurring processes, it turns out that if you formalize it into a system, it has tremendous power — just as formalizing humming, whistling and tapping one’s fingers on the table, if formalized, yields the symphony, the marching band, the gamelan and shakuhachi, the slalom of notes pouring from a bebop saxophone.

Wherever two thoughts can be associated, they can be annotated using my game boards. In terms of conversation, what this means is that we have a way to “score” conversations as though they were works of music, omitting the “straightaways” where talk continues down a single linear path and focusing in on the “elbows” where the direction of conversation shifts, where the linearity becomes non-linear, where complexity and richness enter into the process.

A HipBoneGame can therefore be thought of as a distilling of conversation or thought into a more potent, concentrated form. Compared with other thinking, it is demanding in that it insists on “creative leaps” which connect one line of thought with another. But compared with other constrained forms such as the fugue or villanelle, it is astonishingly liberating, since it allows people who have no skills at complex rhyming or playing contrapuntal music to work a tight form using their natural power of association alone — and the result is the creation of beauty, of a sort which generally requires extensive artistic training to achieve.

So among other things,a HipBone game is an art form which relatively few barriers to entry, in which an architecture of thoughts — a variant on Hermann Hesse’s “hundred gated cathedral of mind” — can be realized.

The games can be played solo, in pairs or in a group, and the experience when more than one participant is present often feels almost telepathic. It also involves “digging beneath appearances” to see patterns, and thus comes close to, and sometimes embodies, archetypal experience. And since HipBone play exercises the analogical / metaphorical capacity, it can also engender an enhanced appreciation for synchronicities and parallelisms in life itself.

Spiritually, the games present a new form of meditation in which the parallelisms between two objects of contemplation are additive (like stereophony in sound and stereoscopy in sight, two distinct but similar percepts become one in such a way that the rich detail of each is maintained while an additional “depth” dimension emerges) rather than subtractive (as in abstraction, whereby only the parallelisms are retained and all richness of differentiating detail are omitted). That by itself is a profound addition to meditative discourse.

In addition, there are many purposes to which the games can be put, from education to business brainstorming to therapy, and variants using what I call “HipBone Analytics” offer users the possibility of mapping / modeling complicated social problems in which multiple stakeholders or points of view are in a continuing, shifting web of tensions, an approach which is specifically pitched at the human voice, emotions and insights in play — rather than at statistics and feedback loops.

I would like to offer this set of tools to the world under a form of licensing which allows free use for non-commercial purposes and profit supportive of my life and continuing projects, and am working with Leigh Melander and Derek Robinson here at the Imaginal Institute to create web-playable game software and spread the word…

http://www.beadgaming.com

*

The content: religious and apocalyptic violence and terrorism

I have been monitoring apocalyptic groups and religious violence for at least a decade, both as a Principal Researcher with the Center for Millennial Studies at Boston U and as the Senior Analyst at The Arlington Institute and informally.

I believe that we do not sufficiently appreciate that the terrorism which we abhor for its indiscriminate violence is, in the performer’s eyes, an act of devotion — that it involves achieving an aroused and impassioned state in which a vision of purity, honor and justice on earth is as much the aim as a favorable status in the afterlife.

I have a passionate wish to understand that passion, not intellectually (though that is a part of it, its meniscus if you like) but as it is felt in the heart, and to be able to communicate what it must feel like to those who need to understand it or in some purposive way respond to it.

This in turn leads me to explore anthropological, depth psychological and comparative religious avenues for going beyond easy dismissal — “they are hideous madmen” — towards the sort of understanding Michael Scheuer, who ran the bin Laden desk at CIA, exhibits when he portrays bin Laden thus:

According to his closest Muslim associates and many of the Westerners who have interviewed him, Osama bin Laden appears to be a genuinely pious Muslim; a devoted family man; a talented, focused, and patient insurgent commander; a frank and eloquent speaker; a successful businessman; and an individual of conviction, intellectual honesty, compassion, humility, and physical bravery.

That, to me, is Scheuer’s appraisal uninfluenced by reactive hatred and disgust at his actions and their impact on us, and thus it is a first step towards a richer understanding in which the nature of genuine piety itself, in warrior mode, becomes something we understand as motive rather than as verbal formulation.

In understanding how a crusader — devoted to the Virgin Mary and all too closely acquainted with the Stations of the Cross — might feel, we come to understand what we are in fact up against in the jihadist.

And this level of insight then allows us to see al-Qaida to some extent as pious Muslims may see it. For though the means bin Laden uses may be critiqued from an Islamic and even a strict Wahhabi point of view — as the recent publication of a devastating book length attack by one of al-Q’s earliest major theological supporters, Sheikh Sayyed Imam Al-Sharif, shows it is still the case that his actions can have different resonance when “read” through Islamic eyes.

When bin Laden, at the lowest point of his jihadist efforts, leaves the Yemen for Afghanistan and betakes himself to the Tora Bora caves, he will inevitably remind some Muslims of the Prophet himself, who at the lowest point of his prophetic vocation left Mecca for Medina and sought sanctuary in a cave — where by the grace of his God, a spider’s web covered the entrance in such a way that his enemies could not see him.

Our natural tendency in the west is to see Tora Bora in terms of military topography, as a highly defensible, almost impregnable warren of caves deep within some of the world’s most difficult mountain territory. What we miss may be precisely what Muslim piety will in some cases see — that bin Laden’s retreat there is symbolically aligned with the “sunna” or life of the Prophet, and thus with the life of Islam itself — in much the same way that Christians, in the words of Thomas a Kempis, may practice “the Imitation of Christ”.

War is an aroused state, and apocalyptic expectation likewise. The content which most interests me is the emotional and archetypal content of apocalyptic arousal, and (for practical reasons) its potential expression in jihad should the Mahdist (messianic) tendencies already visible in both Sunni and Shiite circles reach the tipping point and add their intensity to an already inflamed situation.

I am currently working on a book-length treatment of these issues, and hope to see it completed in the next months and published (I have a publisher in mind), not too long after that.

*

A marriage of form and content: Edward Said’s Game:

As I’ve described above, I have developed a form for the expression of multiple ideas in multiple voices, and I am also passionately engaged in monitoring and mapping the various voices to be distinguished within the complexities of contemporary religious violence.

I have a particular interest in the Temple Mount or Noble Sanctuary in Jerusalem, where the al-Aqsa mosque now stands, and where some Jews and supportive Christians feel the Third Jewish Temple should by rights be built. Since both Jewish hope of the Messiah, Christian longing for the Second Coming and Muslim expectation of the coming of the Mahdi or Rightly Guided one all converge on this one point, Gershom Gorenberg has aptly called it “the most contested piece of real estate on earth”.

The Palestinian public intellectual Edward Said once wrote:

When you think about it, when you think about Jew and Palestinian not separately, but as part of a symphony, there is something magnificently imposing about it. A very rich, also very tragic, also in many ways desperate history of extremes — opposites in the Hegelian sense — that is yet to receive its due. So what you are faced with is a kind of sublime grandeur of a series of tragedies, of losses, of sacrifices, of pain that would take the brain of a Bach to figure out. It would require the imagination of someone like Edmund Burke to fathom.
Edward W. Said, Power, Politics, and Culture, p. 447

Said’s words resonate strongly with my interest in the religious and political conflicts in the Middle East, but I also see them as describing an approach to those conflicts for which my own games and analytic tools — viewed as methods of scoring a polyphony of contrasting voices — are uniquely suited.

I thus have the project of mapping many of the voices in Middle Eastern religious and political discourse onto a “conceptual map” using HipBone analytic methodology.

I intend to present this project in web-based form, as an artwork with implications for education, diplomacy and conflict-resolution.

The spider’s web revisited

April 1, 2008 by hipbone

I came across this diagram of a spider’s web while looking info on their strength and resilience today, spurred on by quotes such as:

a. spider’s web gains enormous strength for its weight by.evenly distributing load among its strands

which, since I’m interested in mapping tensions between people and their often conflicting ideas, brings me back to the work of Valdis Krebs and others on social networks.

spiders-web.gif

This comes from Mark Denny, “The Physical Properties of Spider’s Silk and their Role in the Design of Orb-webs”, J. Exp. Biol. (1976), 65, 483-506.

http://jeb.biologists.org/cgi/reprint/65/2/483.pdf

*

Another form I’m interested in as a vehicle for mapping complicated systems (I try to avoid the word “complex” in case there’s a mathematician within earshot) is the Quipu:

quipu.jpg

*

Please stop me before I get on to the merits of the various kinds of mala and rosary… which Anthony Judge has in any case discussed in one of his own invariably curious and erudite papers, Designing Cultural Rosaries and Meaning Malas to Sustain Associations with the Pattern that Connects.

I am Charles

March 31, 2008 by hipbone

I was asked to introduce myself in an online conference I’m attending for Fellows of the Imaginal Institute. This was the post I made:

.

I am Charles

 

My concern is the human mind in service
to an open heart, and my problem
is that the heart picks issues rich in ambiguity
and multiplicity of voices, tensions
and torsions tugging not one way but
in many directions, even dimensions, as does
a spider’s web weighed down with dew –
to clarify which a mind’s abacus is required

equal in subtlety to subtlety itself, while
in all our thinking and talking, one
effect follows one cause from question
to conclusion down one sentence or white
paper — whereas in counterpoint,
Bach’s fugal voices contain their dissonance.

Mapping missing links

March 19, 2008 by hipbone

Jogged by a mention in John Robb’s blog, I found an interesting quote in a piece Rick Bookstaber wrote for Institutional Investor on The Myth Of Non Correlation:

What catches many investors off guard and leads them to make the “100 year” sort of comment is not the behavior of individual markets, but the concurrent big and unexpected moves among markets. It’s the surprising linkages that suddenly appear between markets that should not have much to do with one other and the failed linkages between those that should march in tandem. That is, investors are not as dumbfounded when volatility skyrockets as when correlations go awry. This may be because investors depend on correlation for hedging and diversifying. And nothing hurts more than to think you are well hedged and then to discover you are not hedged at all.

Here’s the money quote from the hipbone perspective:

It’s the surprising linkages that suddenly appear between markets that should not have much to do with one other and the failed linkages between those that should march in tandem.

Simply put, the issue is mapping the world in a way that corresponds with the world’s linkages, that’s not surprised by them… and what do you do, then, about black swans, about surprise?

Spiders and dewdrops

March 19, 2008 by hipbone

Spiders and dewdrops do a pretty convincing job of portraying a certain level of complexity in this node-and-edge diagram of the global situation.

spider_web.jpg

When, say, Castro hands over power to his brother, or Musharraf has to give up control of the Pakistani army, it’s like snipping a couple of threads in that spiders web — and the droplets fall this way and that, carom into one another, the fine threads they’re on swing down and around until a new equilibrium is reached…

But try thinking that through in terms of Cuba and Pakistan before breakfast one morning if you’re Secretary of State, with a linear Cold War mind, Russia going through its own changes, and al-Qaida and associates training and recruiting in the background…